Overview
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Themes to research
Directional stocks
Theme Returns Map 1M × 3M median member returns
Themes
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Candidates
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Saved
Methodology
Market
Market Bias
The structural direction to prioritise in research.
Long or Short Bias organises research; entry evaluation remains separate.
Exact rule
SPY and QQQ price states and constituent breadth feed the frozen Market Matrix. Unanimous Bullish or Bearish prices establish direction, with breadth context; other combinations retain the existing Matrix. IWM is small-cap context only and affects neither Bias nor Extension.
Market Extension
How far the benchmarks have moved from their short-term trend relative to recent volatility.
Stretched or Extended calls for more care about chasing. It changes attention, never Bias or qualification.
Exact rule
For SPY and QQQ: (completed adjusted close − EMA21) / Wilder ATR20. True Range = max(H−L, |H−previous C|, |L−previous C|). The seed is the mean of 20 True Ranges; subsequent ATR = (19 × prior ATR + TR) / 20. Absolute distance <1 is Normal; 1 to below 1.5 Stretched; ≥1.5 Extended. Both benchmarks Extended on the same side give Extended; both at least Stretched on the same side give Stretched; other complete combinations give Normal. Missing/invalid history or zero ATR is Unavailable. EMA50, breadth, IWM, VIX and theme metrics are excluded.
Research focus and EMA changes
Where to spend research attention under the current context.
Countertrend review and pullback-risk review are context labels, not reversal or entry signals.
Exact rule
Short Bias: Directional normally, Countertrend watch for Downside Stretched, Countertrend review for Downside Extended. Long Bias mirrors this on the upside with pullback-risk watch/review. Other directional combinations remain Directional; non-directional Bias remains Observe. Candidates stay inspectable in Normal conditions. EMA21/EMA50 Above/Below/At changes use a compatible previous completed session, separately for SPY, QQQ and IWM; missing history produces no crossing.
Themes
Theme Strength
Relative strength across Active themes.
Read the 0–100 value as stronger or weaker than other themes, not expected return, probability or Research Priority.
Exact rule
Theme 1M/3M are median Core + Enabler stock price returns over 21/63 completed trading sessions, requiring five valid members and 80% coverage. Strength = 60% 1M cross-theme percentile + 40% 3M percentile. Related members and thematic ETFs do not enter calculations.
Theme Trend
The direction of the theme’s synthetic index.
Bullish, Bearish or Mixed is separate from cross-theme Strength.
Exact rule
The chain-linked index has drifting weights between rebalances. Above both EMA21 and EMA50 is Bullish; below both is Bearish; other combinations, including equality, are Mixed. Indicator-only history cannot create official earned returns or live transitions.
Theme breadth
How broadly members participate in the theme’s trend.
Read members above EMA21 and EMA50 as context, not as a candidate rule.
Exact rule
At least five valid Core + Enabler members and 80% coverage are required. Each needs a current close and the corresponding EMA. Breadth changes neither Strength nor candidate qualification. Missing breadth is shown as a dash.
Strength Rank and Rank Change
A stable comparison across all scored Active themes.
Filters and sorting never change Strength Rank. Rank Change describes movement against the previous completed session.
Exact rule
Scores rank descending using competition ties: 1,2,2,4. Theme ID only stabilises tied display order. Change = previous rank − current rank. Missing/incompatible adjacent history, newly active/scored themes or changed Active/scored universes yield no comparable change.
Research Priority
A theme’s current Directional research relevance.
A high Strength Rank may still be Watch under Short Bias. Research Priority is a separate judgement from rank.
Exact rule
Existing Long theme rules require Strength ≥50 with Bullish/Mixed trend or a valid Newly bullish exception; Short requires Strength <50 with Bearish/Mixed trend or a valid Newly bearish exception. Research Priority Change compares the previous compatible completed session. Core business participates directly; Supporting business supplies products/services enabling the theme.
Stocks
Peer-relative strength (W)
A stock’s strength or weakness relative to the other members of its theme.
Positive is stronger than peers; negative is weaker. W is theme-specific and measured in percentage points, not expected return.
Exact rule
Leave the stock itself out of the Core + Enabler peer median. W = 60% 1M excess return + 40% 3M excess return. A ticker may have a different W in each theme. W predicts neither reversal, rebound, pullback nor trade success.
Liquidity eligibility
Whether a stock meets the existing trading-liquidity requirements.
Liquidity eligible is distinct from Meets candidate criteria. Earnings are optional.
Exact rule
Require a completed regular-session bar, close ≥$5, average volume over 10 completed sessions >500,000 shares and daily turnover ≥$10 million. Missing trading bars are unavailable/ineligible; terminal merger valuations never imply tradeability.
Directional Candidates
Stocks meeting the current Directional research criteria.
Use them to choose chart research, not as entry instructions.
Exact rule
Existing theme Research Priority, valid W and liquidity requirements apply. Long requires W>0; Short W<0; zero W never qualifies. Newly bullish/bearish theme exceptions, where already valid, remain unchanged.
Countertrend Candidates
Relative strength and weakness inside the directional theme universe.
Peer outperformers and weak-theme laggards are observations, not predicted rebounds. Under Long Bias, strong leaders and underperforming theme peers support careful research; extension may make chasing less attractive.
Exact rule
Use Active Core + Enabler relationships with normal available/pass liquidity and nonzero W. Short themes: Strength <50, Bearish/Mixed; positive W is internal Resilient, negative W internal Snapback. Long themes: Strength ≥50, Bullish/Mixed; positive W is Strong Leaders, negative W Relative Weakness. Positive buckets order W descending then Strength descending; negative buckets W ascending then Strength ascending; ticker/theme ID stabilise ties. No new score or technical-entry rule.
Multi-theme research and TXT exports
A stock can deserve research in more than one theme.
The Theme filter chooses the relationship shown on screen. Exports always use the complete published lens, independently of current filters.
Exact rule
Directional exports retain their existing bytes and assignment: Core first, then stronger directional W, then theme ID. Countertrend combined TXT deduplicates across both buckets, ticker alphabetical; bucket TXT preserves supplied W order with first occurrence per ticker. Only verified TradingView identifiers are allowed. Short files: Countertrend.txt, Resilient.txt, Snapback.txt. Long files: Countertrend.txt, Strong-Leaders.txt, Relative-Weakness.txt. Unavailable Countertrend has no export. Saved remains independent of qualification.
System
Completed-session data
One completed US session underlies the whole workspace.
Connection loss preserves the last successful session; a failed refresh never replaces it.
Exact rule
Alpaca SIP supplies completed historical daily data. Values, ranks and transitions are calculated before transactional publication. Public snapshots fix market data while navigation, Saved, display preferences and downloads remain interactive. No credentials, provider calls or SQLite are exposed in static output.
Launch and history
The approved history begins at the Nov 6 close.
Launch and earned-session comparisons remain distinct. Gate E is open until real Nov 10 validation passes.
Exact rule
Official indices initialise exactly at 100 on 2026-11-06; the first earned session is Nov 9 and the first possible adjacent-live comparison Nov 10. Old holdings earn approval session t; rebalance at t close; new holdings first earn the next trading session. effective_from is first earned session; effective_to is exclusive. Approved terminal corporate actions affect existing-holding accounting only, never tradeability. User-reported status: Nov 6 PASS; Nov 9 PASS; Nov 10 PENDING; Gate E OPEN. No new live evidence is generated by UI fixtures.
Configuration status
- Load a snapshot to check activation.
Effective SPY and QQQ rosters are required. Staleness is advisory. Gate E remains open.